A spatial model of population dynamics of the early life stages of Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, off the Pacific coast of Japan

We constructed a numerical model reproducing the transport, survival and individual growth of the early life stages of Japanese sardine, Sardinops melanostictus, off the Pacific coast of Japan during 1978–93. The causes of early life stage mortality, including the influence of the effects of the spatial relationship between the spawning grounds and the Kuroshio on the mortality rate, were investigated. Survival and transport from egg stage to 60 days after spawning were modelled daily in a 1 × 1 degree mesh cell and individual growth in the period was modelled in each region (Kuroshio, Inshore, Offshore and Transition regions). Individual growth and survival from 60 to 180 days after spawning were modelled daily in the Transition region. Environmental data were taken from outside the model system. Our simulation indicates that survival variability in the larval stage (5–25 mm in standard length) is the key factor in determining the year‐class strength. The simulation revealed that strong year classes occurred with good survival in the spawning ground and whilst entrained in the Kuroshio current being transported to the main feeding grounds in the Transition region. The simulation also indicated that survival rates in 1988–93 were low in the Inshore, Kuroshio and Offshore regions, which depressed the year‐class strength during that period.     

The abundance of juvenile yellowtail (Seriola quinqueradiata) near the Kuroshio: the roles of drifting seaweed and regional hydrography

We assess the effect of drifting seaweed (Sargassum sp.) biomass, geography and hydrography on juvenile yellowtail (Seriola quinqueradiata) abundance variation off the southeast coast of Japan, near the Kuroshio Current. The amount of drifting seaweed mats progressively increased northeastward into the cooler, coastal waters. Frontal structure indexed using a station‐to‐station ΔSST did not explain spatial variation in the seaweed mat distribution, although the western extent of the Kuroshio Current appeared to act as a boundary. Juvenile yellowtail constituted 51–62% of the fish collected in association with drifting seaweed mats in April 1996 and 1997 and 29% in June 1996. The abundance of juvenile yellowtail was positively correlated with seaweed biomass. The geographic distribution of juvenile yellowtail associated with drifting mats varied among sampling periods, being more southwesterly in April and more northeasterly in June. Simple multiple regression models based on seaweed biomass and geographic distribution (latitude) explained between 35% and 43% of the variation in juvenile yellowtail abundance in spring. Associations with spatial and temporal variations in hydrographic conditions did not contribute to explained variation in a meaningful manner. The results presented here indicate that, off the southeast coast of Japan during April, yellowtail juveniles are likely to be most abundant when seaweed biomass is high, occur offshore, and are bounded by the western extent of the Kuroshio Current near the 19–20°C SST isotherm.     

湖泊渔业资源开发的系统动力学模型研究

采用灰色系统理论与国际先进的人工神经网络模拟相结合的先进技术，进行了太湖、濑湖和金鸡湖的渔业资源开发的系统动力学模型研究。认为控制捕涝强度是调空太湖针银鱼，梅鲚，白虾３个主要经济种群的关键因素，专家鉴定认为，本研究填补国内空白，居国内领先水平。     

Analysis of regional variation of height growth and slenderness in populations of six urban tree species using a quantile regression approach

Inventory data of six urban tree species from seven cities across Germany were used to model regional variation of height growth, allometric scaling, and slenderness over a wide range of size and age using a quantile regression approach. Variation within and between species and cities was large. Height did not reach an asymptote but declined at higher ages, presumably because of reduction cuts. Allometric scaling and slenderness varied with wind climate, modulus of elasticity, and coefficient of drag. Our data do not support the use of a threshold value of slenderness in tree risk assessment.     

Spatially explicit fisheries simulation models for policy evaluation

This paper deals with the design of modelling tools suitable for investigating the consequences of alternative policies on the dynamics of resources and fisheries, such as the evaluation of marine protected areas (MPA). We first review the numerous models that have been developed for this purpose, and compare them from several standpoints: population modelling, exploitation modelling and management measure modelling. We then present a generic fisheries simulation model, Integration of Spatial Information for FISHeries simulation (ISIS‐Fish). This spatially explicit model allows quantitative policy screening for fisheries with mixed‐species harvests. It may be used to investigate the effects of combined management scenarios including a variety of policies: total allowable catch (TAC), licenses, gear restrictions, MPA, etc. Fisher's response to management may be accounted for by means of decision rules conditioned on population and exploitation parameters. An application to a simple example illustrates the relevance of this kind of tool for policy screening, particularly in the case of mixed fisheries. Finally, the reviewed models and ISIS‐Fish are discussed and confronted in the light of the underlying assumptions and model objectives. In the light of this discussion, we identify desirable features for fisheries simulation models aimed at policy evaluation, and particularly MPA evaluation.     

An evaluation of the potential influence of SST and currents on the oceanic migration of juvenile and immature chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) by a simulation model

Using a salmon migration model based on the assumption that swimming orientation is temperature dependent, we investigated the determining factors of the migration of juvenile and immature chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in the North Pacific. We compared the predictions of the model with catch data of immature and juvenile chum salmon collected by Japanese research vessels from 1972 to 1999. The salmon migration model reproduced the observed distributions of immature chum salmon and indicates that passive transport by wind‐driven and geostrophic currents plays an important role in the eastward migration of Asian salmon. These factors result in a non‐symmetric distribution of Asian and North American chum salmon in the open ocean. The directional swimming component contributes to the northward migration in summer. The model results indicate that during the first winter Asian chum salmon swim northward against the southward wind‐driven currents to stay in the western North Pacific. This suggests that Asian chum salmon require more energy to migrate than other stocks during the first winter of their ocean life.     

方氏云(鱼尉)的排空率研究

在实验室内约 15℃水温下 ,投喂以细长脚 (Themisto gracilip es)为主要成分的天然饵料 ,对成体方氏云 (Enedrias fangi)进行了排空率研究。对 3种排空模型拟合效果的分析显示 ,平方根模型最符合方氏云的排空。在不摄食阶段 ,全消化道内含物的量 (CDW)随时间 (TIME)的变化可以下式描述 :CDW0 .5=3.890 - 0 .175· TIME(R2 =0 .939,p<0 .0 0 0 1)。方氏云的排空率为 0 .175g/10 0 g wet· h。     

Modelling changes in the length–frequency distributions of fish larvae using field estimates of predator abundance and size distributions

The goal of this study is to determine if an individual-based size-dependent model can realistically simulate changes in the length–frequency distributions of several species of fish larvae collected in Conception Bay in 1993 and 1994, using field estimations of growth and predator abundance. We first model the length–frequency distribution of field samples with the best possible estimates of mean growth rate. Then, we add predation mortality given the characteristics of the predator community observed during our surveys, which was composed of macrozooplankton and adult capelin. The larval fish community is generally not affected by predation by macrozooplankton, as the average instantaneous mortality rate predicted by the model was 0.004 day^–1. Fish larvae appear to be more vulnerable to predation by the population of adult capelin. We estimate that an abundance of adult capelin ranging between 0.2 and 1.0 individuals per 1000 m^–3 may have a substantial impact on the larval fish community. The predictions of an individual-based model are directly related to the accuracy of estimates of the mean growth rates of the larval fish cohorts. We find that it is difficult to differentiate size-selective removal of individuals from random selection by analysing changes of the length–frequency distributions of the larval fish community.     

基于四大家鱼产卵需求的汉江中下游生态流量研究

针对汉江中下游梯级电站开发后水文节律变化造成四大家鱼栖息地生境质量降低的问题,分别通过几种常用水文学法和栖息地模型计算了汉江中下游河道最小生态流量和四大家鱼产卵适宜生态流量,并在最小生态流量的基础上,结合四大家鱼产卵适宜生态流量以及生态水文特征在5-8月进行了脉冲设计,综合确定出了满足四大家鱼产卵需求的生态流量过程。结果表明,Lyon法和7Q10法最适宜汉江中下游最小生态流量的计算,流量为294~863 m3/s;通过栖息地模型计算,彭市和仙桃江段四大家鱼产卵适宜生态流量为1233~3950 m3/s;流量日涨幅在139.1~534.8 m3/s,持续5 d的涨水过程可为四大家鱼产卵提供良好的条件。该研究从考虑四大家鱼产卵需求的角度,为汉江中下游梯级电站的生态调度提供科学参考。     

Machine learning highlights the importance of primary and secondary production in determining habitat for marine fish and macroinvertebrates

1. Species distribution models for marine organisms are increasingly used for a range of applications, including spatial planning, conservation, and fisheries management. These models have been constructed using a variety of mathematical forms and drawing on both physical and biological independent variables; however, what might be called first-generation models have mainly followed the form of linear models, or smoothing splines, informed by data collected in the context of fish surveys.
2. The performance of different classes of variables were tested in a series of species occurrence models built with machine learning methods, specifically evaluating the potential contribution of lower trophic level data. Random forest models were fitted based on the classification of the absence/presence for fish and macroinvertebrates surveyed on the US Northeast Continental Shelf.
3. The potential variables included physical, primary production, secondary production, and terrain variables. For accepted model fits, six variable importance measures were computed, which collectively showed that physical and secondary production variables make the greatest contribution across all models. In contrast, terrain variables made the least contribution to these models.
4. Multivariable analyses that account for all performance measures reinforce the role of water depth and temperature in defining species presence and absence; however, chlorophyll concentration and some specific zooplankton taxa, such as Metridia lucens and Paracalanus parvus, also make important contributions with strong seasonal variations.
5. Our results suggest that lower trophic level variables, if available, are valuable in the creation of species distribution models for marine organisms.